Ladies and gentlemen, thanks for joining me here at Gridiron Goddess for another installment of Your Fantasy Football- Reality Check.
A friend of mine contacted me last Thursday offering a spot in his alternate league because someone wasn't available to participate this year. The draft was held last Saturday and I thought I’d discuss some of the trends and surprises that cropped up during this event.
Be prepared everybody- quarterbacks have returned to the top of the draft! I had the #4 pick in a 12- team league, my first selection was Joseph Addai. Before I even had the opportunity to make my second selection, 6 quarterbacks had come off the board. My original intention was to take a QB with my 2nd or 3rd pick, but the draft dictated otherwise. The team that took Brady #9 overall followed that pick by grabbing Randy Moss in the second round, and then drafted David Garrard in the THIRD ROUND- still no running back! That was the clear indicator that times have changed indeed.
Since half of the league put their emphasis on the top quarterbacks, I had to slightly adjust my strategy. Knowing that I had to grab two of the top ten receivers, I spent my 2nd and 3rd round choices on Terrell Owens and Larry Fitzgerald. By the time it came back around for my 4th pick, two tight ends had been selected, but not exactly in the order I expected. Witten and then Winslow were taken ahead of my eventual choice- Antonio Gates, which surprised me somewhat but I’ll certainly take it.
Here’s a real life example of what I’ve claimed in the past was true- that running backs in the 3rd to 5th rounds are alarmingly similar to RB's you’ll find in the 5th to 7th rounds.
The league I’m in requires that we start two RB's, two receivers, a tight end, and a flex player- that can be either a RB or WR. As my 5th round choice approached I had one running back, both receivers, my tight end, and that was it. So I took Rudi Johnson in the 5th banking on a bounce back effort this season, and landed LenDale White in the 7th, to round out my #2 RB and likely flex player. I got even more excited by the White selection when I was able to get his backfield mate, Chris Johnson in the 11th.
The two players stock that I was intrigued to see play out were a couple of WR's that will be missing at least a couple of games a piece because of suspensions- Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall. It turned out that one owner wasn’t afraid to spend a third round choice on Smith when equal value receivers were still available- Marques Colston, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and Plaxico Burress were still on the board.
Meanwhile, it seems owners may be weary of drafting Brandon Marshall considering he fell to my team in the 8th, and I’m perfectly happy to have a bye week/backup receiver/flex of his caliber.
You’re probably wondering what direction I went with my QB since all I’ve harped on since the inception of this column is that you need to acquire a top-flight quarterback in order to have fantasy success. As it happened, I was fortunate enough to get Donovan McNabb, Brett Favre, and Aaron Rodgers to be my field generals. I know what I'm getting from McNabb- a great start to some sort of midseason injury. That’s why I’m glad I was able to get Favre, because my feeling is that by the time McNabb goes down, Favre should have a good handle on the Jets offense. Finally, if all else fails at least I have the potential of Rodgers to fill in on any unforeseen disasters.
Overall, I have to admit that after seeing the top six QB's exit the draft board in the first round and a half, I’m surprised that I still left the draft with two of my top ten fantasy QB's and my third is ranked in
my top twenty.
The remaining available slots open on my squad were soon occupied by: Vikings D/ST, Heath Miller, and lastly Stephen Gostkowski.
The REALITY CHECK I’d like to impart to all of you participating in a draft this week is this: It’s going to happen, someone’s going to take a player you’ve coveted entering the draft. The way you respond to the ebb and flow of the draft will largely determine how your team is structured. Don’t panic or develop some emotional involvement to the outcome of a particular pick. Keep your cool, become a stoic, and respond by living in the moment. When a player is no longer available- cross him off your list and move on to the next best, it is really that easy.
There’s one more observation I’d like to touch on and it’s regarding rookies. The philosophy I have when filling out my roster is to draft the highest production level you feel you’ll be getting from a certain player. If a rookie is the player that fills the bill at the time in the draft you select him- no worries, nothing wrong with a little potential. However, I warn all of you to be conservative when considering drafting potential over guaranteed production. I’d much rather have a roster filled with 29-30 year-old producers over 21 year-old never taken a snap in the NFL names. There’s a team in my league that spread the rookie love up and down his roster from running back to wide receiver and even a tight end sprinkled in there as well. Not the course of action I’d recommend by any means outside of a fairly deep salary keeper league.
- Beware of the pitfalls you can create for yourself!
- Stay calm and focused on the task at hand and act like you’ve done it before (Because most of you have!!).
- Do have fun BUT not at the cost of missing out on a player because you’ve been clowning around. Trust me on this one and you might not end up with rookies for half of your squad- save the beers for your after draft victory party (Let’s be real- we all think we’ve got the most potentially dominant team right after the draft).
Good luck to everybody and draft wisely!!
Happy Football!
~ Stephen Lamare